Latin America. The Internet is made up of thousands of public and private networks around the world. And since it came to life in 1984, more than 4.7 zettabytes of IP traffic have navigated through it. This is equivalent to all the movies that have been made in history crossing global IP networks in less than a minute.
However, according to Cisco's new Visual Networking Index (VNI) Report, this is just the beginning. By 2022 there will be more IP traffic crossing global networks than in all the "Internet years" combined until 2016. In other words, more traffic will be created in 2022 than in the 32 years since the internet began. Where will that traffic come from? From all of us, from our machines and from the way we use the internet. By 2022, 60% of the world's population will be internet users. More than 28 billion devices and connections will be online. And video will account for 82% of all IP traffic.
"The size and complexity of the Internet continue to grow in ways that many could not have imagined. Since we started the VNI Report in 2005, traffic has increased 56-fold, accumulating annual growth of 36%, as more people, devices and applications access IP networks," said Jonathan Davidson, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Service Providers, Cisco. "Global service providers are focused on transforming their networks to better manage and route traffic, while delivering premium experiences. Our ongoing research helps us gain and share valuable insights into the technology and architectural transitions our clients must make to succeed."
Key forecasts for 2022
Cisco's VNI Report looks at the impact that users, devices and other trends will have on global IP networks over a five-year period. From 2017 to 2022, Cisco predicts:
1. Global IP traffic will triple
• Global IP traffic is expected to reach 396 exabytes per month in 2022, compared to 122 exabytes per month recorded in 2017. That's 4.8 zettabytes of traffic per year by 2022.
• In 2022, the hour of peak Internet traffic will be six times more active than the average. Rush-hour internet traffic will increase nearly fivefold (37% annual growth) from 2017 to 2022, reaching 7.2 petabytes per second by 2022. By comparison, average internet traffic will increase nearly four times (30% annually) over the same period to reach 1 petabyte per second by 2022.
2. Global internet users will make up 60% of the world's population
By 2022, there will be 4.8 billion Internet users. This represents an increase of 3.4 billion since 2017 (45% of the world's population).
3. Global devices and network connections will reach 28.5 billion
By 2022, there will be 28.5 billion fixed and mobile personal connections and devices, compared to 18 billion or 3.6 devices/network connections per person, out of 2.4 per person counted in 2017.
More than half of all devices and connections will be machine-to-machine by 2022, a 34% increase from 2017. That's 14.6 billion connections of smart speakers, accessories, devices and everything else, out of 6.1 billion.
Global broadband speed, Wi-Fi and mobile connection will at least double
The average global fixed broadband speed will nearly double from 39.0 Mbps to 75.4 Mbps.
The average speed of the global Wi-Fi connection will more than double, from 24.4 Mbps to 54.0 Mbps.
The average global mobile connection speed will more than triple from 8.7 Mbps to 28.5 Mbps.
Video, gaming and multimedia will account for more than 85% of all traffic
IP video traffic will quadruple by 2022. As a result, it will account for an even higher percentage of total IP traffic than before: up to 82%, from 75%.
Gaming traffic is expected to increase ninefold from 2017 to 2022. It will account for 4% of total IP traffic in 2022.
Virtual and augmented reality traffic will skyrocket as more consumers and businesses use the technologies. By 2022, virtual and augmented reality traffic will reach 4.02 exabytes/month, up from 0.33 exabytes/month in 2017.
Details of regional IP traffic growth (2017-2022)
Asia Pacific: 173 exabytes/month by 2022, 32% CAGR, four times growth
North America: 108 exabytes/month by 2022, 21% CAGR, three times growth
Western Europe: 50 exabytes/month 2022, 22% CAGR, three times growth
Central and Eastern Europe: 25 exabytes/month by 2022, 26% CAGR, three times growth
Middle East and Africa: 21 exabytes/month by 2022, 41% CAGR, six times growth
Latin America: 19 exabytes/month by 2022, 21% CAGR, three times growth
Cisco VNI Report Methodology
The full Cisco VNI Report for 2017 to 2022 is based on forecasts from independent analysts and real-world network usage data. On this basis are Cisco's own estimates for global IP traffic and service adoption. A detailed description of the methodology is included in the full report. Throughout its 13-year history, Cisco® VNI research has become a highly prized measure of the growth of the Internet. National governments, network regulators, academic researchers, telecommunications companies, technology and press experts, and industry/business analysts rely on the annual study to help plan for the digital future.
