Latin America. Latin America's growth expectation for 2013 was set at 3.8%, based on the recovery of Argentina and Brazil and the dynamism of domestic demand, despite the persistence of uncertainties worldwide, according to data released by ECLAC.
According to the bank, the maintenance of the dynamism of domestic demand in several economies in the region will be the result of the improvement in labor indicators, the increase in bank credit to the private sector and the prices of raw materials that would not suffer significant additional falls, despite the high external uncertainty.
With respect to the year it has, the region will end with an expansion of its gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.1%, higher than the expected global growth of 2.2%, although lower than the 4.3% obtained in 2011, which shows that the global economic crisis had a negative but not dramatic impact on the continent, which maintained during the year some resilience to face shocks of external origin.
The main impact of the global crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean was reflected in the commercial sphere, as the growth in the value of the region's exports slowed markedly, from 23.9% in 2011 to an estimated 1.6% in 2012.
Regional performance was influenced by the lower growth of two of the largest economies in the region, Argentina (2.2% in 2012 compared to 8.9% in 2011) and Brazil (1.2% compared to 2.7% in 2011), which represent about 41.5% of regional GDP. For 2013 it is expected that both will register a recovery (to 3.9% in Argentina and 4% in Brazil).
According to ECLAC's Preliminary Balance Sheet, Panama will remain the fastest growing economy in the region in 2012 (estimated 10.5%), followed by Peru (6.2%), Chile (5.5%) and Venezuela (5.3%). Paraguay will experience a contraction of 1.8%, while Mexico will grow 3.8%. Overall, Central America will grow 4.2%, South America 2.7% and the Caribbean 1.1%.
